Honda Classic First Look Course Breakdown + Key Stats

Course Breakdown

PGA National (Championship)

Par: 70

Length: 7,125 yards

Greens: Bermuda

Fancy yourself a challenge? You’ve come to the right place, PGA national typically plays as one of the toughest courses on tour and with a windy forecast on the horizon this is surely to to test the golfers in every aspect of their games. Water comes into play on fifteen holes and there are a whopping 78 (challenging at that) bunkers scattered throughout the grounds of PGA National. This is typically a second shot makers course and I can’t see the golfers going too low this weekend. Brace yourselves for another tough weekend after last week’s Players Championship. 

Key Stats 

Strokes Gained: Approach

  • Weighted most heavily (plenty of water and greenside bunkers lurking)
  • Second shot makers course 

Par 4’s Gained

  • Simply some LONG and challenging par 4’s – avoiding bogeys will be crucial 

Driving Distance Gained + Accuracy 

  • Weighted distance 65% accuracy 35% 
  • Long holes where distance definitely gives an edge (most notably par 5’s where birdies or better are crucial 

Opportunities gained  

  • With winds in the forecast, low numbers should be hard to come by 

 

Power Rankings 

  1. Talor Gooch 
  2. Chris Kirk
  3. Shane Lowry
  4. Brandon Steele
  5. Lee Westwood
  6. Russell Henley
  7. Adam Scott 
  8. Sungjae Im
  9. Joaquín Niemann
  10. Daniel Berger 

Quick Thoughts

Brutal field, challenging course… These are a dream scenario as I feel that there is a severe edge to be had when we remove all of the top names from the leaderboard. Daniel Berger pops immediately in every aspect but that 10-1 number is tough to bite on. Berger hit an outright for us just weeks ago at Pebble Beach so may be a gratitude bet. Richy Werenski is my outside lean here and can be had at up to 100-1 which is worth a couple of dollars to pair with a top 10 finish.

  • Update Tuesday 2:28am – news of a potential Berger injury circulating may put a damper in things in terms of straight vibin’ Daniel Berger finding his way into our card this week. Niemann is my next target at the top 
  • Update Tuesday 2:50am – Dylan Fritelli gaining traction and makes sense here. Down to 50-1. Love a top 10 finish. Also going back to the well with J.T poston placement top 10. 
  • Kevin Streelman (grinder, excels in tough conditions) 80–1 looks good and could see up to a top 5

Players Championship Review + Betting Card Analysis

Justin Thomas strikes after a blistering weekend!

Players Championship Review  

Justin Thomas is back in the winners circle after putting on a clinical ball striking performance over the weekend which culminated with a -14 finish including -12 throughout Saturday and Sunday. After a rough start to the year between the highly publicized slur, the crash of dear friend Tiger Woods, and the passing of his grandfather this win couldn’t have come at a better time. He emerged from the pack after starting four strokes back to start off the final round. Round two of the Bryson DeChambeau and Lee Westwood final round pairing got off to a rough start (including a double OB fiasco off the tee from the both of them on the 4th hole) which left the door wide open for Justin. He couldn’t seem to bury a putt through the first seven holes but ultimately remained steady while putting on a clinical performance in the way of ball striking until the floodgates opened with a -5 stretch from holes 9-12 to take over the top of the leaderboard. He never looked back from there and remained steady as ever (minus a missed two and half footer on 14). On a day in which many struggled to find their groove off the tee he found countless fairways and went on to hit every green in regulation, quite the feat at TPC Sawgrass. A win well deserved! 

Betting Card Analysis

Jon Rahm (16-1) 

  • 4 units
  • First bet of the week, saw a number that stood out and felt (still do) that Rahm has a big win on the horizon after a club switch to Callaway earlier this year. Went with course narrative here, should have closed out the 2019 players championship before imploding on the back nine to finish outside of 20th place.  Remained a top five favourite on the board throughout the weekend but simply didn’t have it on sunday. 

Justin Thomas (18-1) CASH IT! 

  • 3 units 
  • Missed out on the initial 20-1 which was a heartbreaker but waited it out after it went to 16 and immediately jumped when it rose back to 18. Wasn’t showing much in the terms of form but knew damn well he wanted this one for more than reason (scandal, passing in the family and injury of a dear friend) possibly providing some fuel to the fire for JT this weekend and a narrative that I was comfortable rolling with. For a player of his caliber on a second shot golf course I will jump over this number over and over again. 

Webb Simpson (25-1)

  • 1 unit
  • Another course narrative pick here as a past winner in runaway fashion back in 2018. Held it together until the back 9 on Friday before imploding and narrowly missing the cut. Course suits his need and I’m not going to let that one bite me in the least bit. 

Daniel Berger (40-1)

  • 1 unit
  • Simply a number I couldn’t resist as a player who hit an outright for me just weeks ago at Pebble Beach. Although never being in contention to win, played some rock solid golf en route to a T9 finish. 

Sungjae Im (50-1)

  • .5 units 
  • More of a number that stood out on this one, that 50-1 that I grabbed was immediately pushed down to 40 and even lower in spots. Should be the favorite next week as the defending champion at The Honda Classic and wanted to jump in on the parade a week early.  

Live Bets

Justin Thomas – pre weekend (40-1)

  • 1 unit
  • Shot in the dark, the number seemed off… what a way to add to the payout 

Bryson DeChambeau – Mid saturday charge (11-1) 

  • 1 unit 
  • Hit for me outright last weekend so I felt due diligence in adding him to the card as a form of a hedge. Fizzled sunday but nothing gets the people going like Bryson on the card. 

Final Thoughts 

Well that makes it 3 outrights in a row, the Eagles Nest is buzzing! After a riveting weekend at TPC Sawgrass it’s finally time for my heart rate to return to normal rates before we return to PGA National next week for the Honda Classic. Let’s keep this train rolling!